Fri. May 20th, 2022

Thursday, February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an order to conduct military operations into eastern Ukraine. The thing that shocked the world, even though it was previously predicted about the invasion of the Red Bear Country.

Putin said Russia would carry out military operations in eastern Ukraine and asked the Ukrainian military to lay down its weapons.

“I have made the decision on military operations,” he said in a surprise televised statement shortly before 03:00 GMT.

Vladimir Putin said the move came in response to threats coming from Ukraine. He added that Russia had no goal of occupying Ukraine. He said responsibility for the bloodshed lies with the Ukrainian regime.

 

Putin warned other countries that any attempt to interfere with Russia’s actions would lead to “consequences they have never seen.”

So far Ukraine has received support from NATO and a number of countries outside the world’s most powerful military organization. What about Russia, who are the supporters?

Moscow is said to have pro-Russian groups and even troops in Ukraine’s Donbass region which have long been accused of causing instability in the region. This is the majority of Russian-speaking people. In the event of war, this region would probably be the first to provide support behind Russia.

Then, there is the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military bloc similar to NATO. It is essentially a security alliance made up of the former Soviet republics. If attacked, the six countries that make up the CSTO (Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) will most likely defend each other.

Due to America’s sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan and the takeover by the Taliban, security concerns among West Asian countries have increased, causing a natural shift towards Russia.

Putin used the opportunity presented to him as protests spread in the region’s most prosperous country, Kazakhstan. He deployed troops to help the government. This has restored the confidence of the CSTO countries in Russia and the alliance as a whole.

Despite the fact that the organization is not designed to engage with internal matters, some or all of these partners will surely rush to President Putin’s aid if the Russian attack on Ukraine turns into World War 3.

Complete List of Countries Believed to Support Russia

The six countries that make up the CSTO (Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan) will most likely defend each other. Outside of Russia, that means there are five countries. The rest there are a number of countries that have close relations and indebtedness with the Red Bear Country.

Here is the full list:

  1. Armenia (CSTO Member)
  2. Belarus (CSTO Member)
  3. Kazakhstan (CSTO Member)
  4. Kyrgyzstan (CSTO Member)
  5. Tajikistan (CSTO Member)
  6. Azerbaijan (non-CSTO from the Caucasus region)
  7. Iran
  8. China
  9. North Korea
  10. Cuba.

Caucasus Countries to Middle East

Another country in the Caucasus region, Azerbaijan (non-CSTO), is also expected to ignore calls to rise up against Russia in the event of a conflict. In 2020, the Russian President brokered a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

While the rest of the world called for them to end the war, it was only Putin’s intervention that resulted in a ceasefire pact, even though it was hailed as Azerbaijan’s victory. Furthermore, Russian troops are stationed in and around the disputed territory to avoid another ethnic conflict. So, it is almost certain that Azerbaijan will not join forces against Russia even if it does not publicly support it.

Moving further into the Middle East, Iran is one country that will support Russia in any capacity. After the nuclear deal fell through, Russia has consistently approached Iran.

While tensions have risen over the years between the US and its allies on the one hand and Iran on the other, Russia has supplied weapons and has cooperated with Iran in the Syrian War.

As relations between Washington and Tehran thawed after the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, Moscow condemned the attack in ambiguous terms. As Iran continues to stumble under the economic sanctions imposed by the US, it is thought to be the reason the country supports Russia with all its heart.

The largest, the world’s largest economy and the ‘Asian Dragon’ – China is Russia’s main partner. Moscow has deepened its partnership with Beijing over the years as tensions between the West and China continue to rise.

In fact, both Russia and China have multi-dimensional partnerships with cooperation ranging from trade to military to outer space. China has firmly asked the US to put aside the “Cold War mentality” and take Russia’s security issues seriously. If there is a conflict, China will definitely support Russia.

Close to China is another isolated but strategically significant country, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or North Korea. Being a communist state, it was Beijing’s main ally and partner of the former Soviet Union.

North Korea is the country that remains the most at war with the United States and its allies. In fact, China and Russia recently blocked US efforts to impose sanctions on North Korea at the United Nations following a spate of missile launches on the peninsula. There is no doubt that North Korea will wholeheartedly support Russia if a full-scale war were to occur.

India is one of the most geopolitically important countries in Asia and is usually known for its neutrality, and being a non-aligned nation despite its strong ties to Russia and the West.

Even during the Cold War, he had led the banner of the Non-Aligned Movement from the very front. It is not easy for India to decide which side to take considering it has very close ties to Russia and the United States.

The India-Russia partnership is characterized by defense cooperation, while its proximity to the US is driven by the Chinese factor. But New Delhi has taken a very nuanced approach to avoiding hostilities from the two countries. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that India will support any conflict against Russia, despite Western pressure.

In America, there is Cuba, one of Russia’s oldest partners. The close cooperation of the communist state of Cuba with the former Soviet Union is well known.

President Vladimir Putin and Cuban President Miguel Dáz-Canel recently discussed “strategic cooperation” and pledged to “strengthen bilateral relations”. This has fueled speculation that Cuba will side with Russia in the event of a conflict.

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Russian television network RTVI that he could not “confirm or exclude” Russia from sending military assets to Cuba if the US and its allies did not heed Moscow’s demands.

The list may be longer than the one listed above because loyalties and alignments can change quickly depending on a variety of factors. Although all countries have publicly condemned the aggression, a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine by Russia could trigger a third world war as many analysts predict.

 

By admin

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